Bayesian Analysis of Condensing Boilers

Bayesian Analysis of Condensing Boilers
28th November 2016 Alison Parker




Statistical analysis of data related to UK boiler use assesses the impact of government legislation, pointing to significant reductions in energy usage


In 2005, legislation was introduced to ensure all new domestic boilers were of the more efficient condensing type. CEE used Bayesian statistics and public data to build a model to evaluate the impact of this policy.

Key Findings

The work highlights the drop in UK gas consumption between 2005 and 2013 even though the number of boilers has increased.

  • Net savings from 2005-2013 equivalent to half the total gas used in a year;
  • Predicted savings of 370 MTons of CO2 by 2050 equivalent to 5.6 times the average UK demand;
  • Model suggests that delaying introduction would have wasted 60,000 GWh/year.

Impact, Influence & Outreach

At the Energy Research Partnership 10 year event, discussion was wide and covered UK future energy research strategy. Only one university was explicitly mentioned and one project – that was UCL’s research into condensing boilers – raised by the current chair of the ERP. It was mentioned in the context of how important obligation and regulation are.

It is cited in the influential ERP report “Heating Buildings: Reducing energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions”.